On everyone’s mind at the moment is where the next spike, wave or ripple might occur. The amount of information can be overwhelming and the ability to interpret this can be out of reach for many.


We have applied a bit of science to the problem, and:


  • Captured daily Local Authority totals

  • Aggregated to ICSs for greater stability and usefulness

  • Created the ability to look at local data in number of views including rolling average, rates per 1000 and raw data

  • Applied statistical tests to see if cases were rising and significant

  • Used geospatial mapping


Click on me to use our new tool.


We took a look at what this shows us today with the latest data:


  • Leicester’s social distancing measures are now working – new cases have dropped by 40% from 0.673 to 0.39 case per 10k

  • Greater Manchester is most significant rising area (as reported about Oldham) having grown .14 to .22 per 10k in two weeks. This is a 50% rise but it is still about half the level of Leicester

  • The places with the highest level of statistically significant increases are Bath and NE Somerset Swindon and Wiltshire, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, North West London and Suffolk

  • The places however with the highest new cases are Leicester, West Yorkshire,  Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Northamptonshire. These have new cases of.17 and .39 per 10k population

  • London was the epicentre of UK but has new cases of  between .04 and .09 per 10k – a small fraction of these northern and midlands areas